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Oregon: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Clout Research (R) poll

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Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Clout Research (R) poll results
43

Clinton

40

Trump

The results show that 43.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 among 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.8% was gained by Clinton in the Clout Research (R) poll on May 13, for Trump this result was 51.2%.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, Polly's forecast is 5.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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