Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 among 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.8% was gained by Clinton in the Clout Research (R) poll on May 13, for Trump this result was 51.2%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, Polly's forecast is 5.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.