OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is significant.