YouGov/Economist published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
YouGov/Economist poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from October 1 to October 3, among a random sample of 911 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. On September 24 Clinton received only 52.2% in the YouGov/Economist poll and Trump received 47.8%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the YouGov/Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.