Results of a new poll conducted by UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular value.
UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to October 2 with 700 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada sees Clinton at 50.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.