Results of a new poll carried out by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were announced. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who answered the question, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20. A total of 514 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.