JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 40.9% was obtained by Clinton in the JMC Analytics poll on May 6, for Trump this number was 59.1%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Louisiana sees Trump at 58.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.