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LA Times poll: Trump with 4 points lead

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LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

LA Times poll results
43

Clinton

47

Trump

According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 3. A total of 2275 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 47.8%. This value is 4.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 4.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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