LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 3. A total of 2275 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 47.8%. This value is 4.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 4.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.