Results of a new poll conducted by KABC/SurveyUSA were announced. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of interviewees indicated that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 28 with 732 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 60.5% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.