The Issues and Leaders model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.