The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 43.8%. In comparison, on October 1, Clinton was predicted to win only 55.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.