Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 43.8%. In comparison, on October 1, Clinton was predicted to win only 55.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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