Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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