Polly today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote forecast (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran against each other 2008.
What Polly's components say
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.8% of the vote.
Trump lost 7.6 percentage point in the index models compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 49.8% in econometric models is notably low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.