ElonElon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 27 and September 30. The sample size was 660 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 50.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the ElonElon poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.