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New CBS/Times poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

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CBS/Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

CBS/Times poll results
49

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 49.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via phone from September 28 to October 2, among a random sample of 1217 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. In the most recent CBS/Times poll on July 12 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the CBS/Times poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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