CBS/Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CBS/Times poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from September 28 to October 2, among a random sample of 1217 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. In the most recent CBS/Times poll on July 12 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the CBS/Times poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.