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Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%. In comparison, on October 1 Trump was predicted to gain 48.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they often include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, one should rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.5%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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