538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump. In comparison, on October 3, Clinton was predicted to gain only 51.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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