538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump. In comparison, on October 3, Clinton was predicted to gain only 51.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.