OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.