Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.