Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 68.3% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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