Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who answered the question, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's forecast is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.