In the latest forecast, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.4% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.6% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote prediction (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat John Kerry and republican George W. Bush ran against each other 2004.
What the components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.7% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 8.2 percentage points.
The Citizen forecasts forecast of 51.5% for the Democratic candidate is rather low compared to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 51.2% for Barack Obama.