KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 732 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.7%. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.