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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump. In comparison, on October 1 Trump was still predicted to win 48.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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