Results of a new poll administered by Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton were published. The poll asked participants from New Jersey for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 6 to September 10 among 735 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 62.8% for Clinton and 37.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, Polly's prediction is 5.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.