Results of a new poll conducted by KABC/SurveyUSA were announced. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28 with 732 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 61.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.