WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
According to the results, 60.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10. A total of 506 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 61.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 4.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.