Results of a new poll administered by Mason-Dixon were released. The poll asked respondents from Florida for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
In Florida, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29, among a random sample of 820 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.