Mason-Dixon poll in Florida: Trump trails by 4 points

Results of a new poll administered by Mason-Dixon were released. The poll asked respondents from Florida for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

In Florida, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29, among a random sample of 820 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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