OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.