Results of a new poll carried out by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of participants will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% will vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.2%. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.