JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 35.0% of respondents would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.