Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13, among a random sample of 701 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.7 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 56.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.