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Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, one should look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton can currently count on 53.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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