Results of a new poll conducted by LorasLoras were distributed. The poll asked participants from Iowa for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Iowa, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
LorasLoras poll results
The results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 20 to September 22. A total of 491 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 47.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Iowa. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.8 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.