Results of a new poll administered by FOX 13/Opinion Savvy were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 28 and September 29. The sample size was 619 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.