Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit NewsDetroit News were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit NewsDetroit News poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Detroit NewsDetroit News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.