Gravis released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, both candidates have the exact same level of support, each with 50.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 27 with 3386 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-1.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. For comparison: Only 46.0% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on August 15, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.8%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.8 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% and Trump 47.7% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.