Polly today predicts a national major-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. Taking a look at previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's forecasts since 2004 democrat candidate John Kerry and republican candidate George W. Bush were in the running.
What Polly's components say
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.3%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.7% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins nine percentage points.
The index models forecast of 53.2% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably low relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models predicted a vote share of 53.2% for Barack Obama.