WTHR/Howey Politics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
Of those who responded, 36.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 6 and September 8. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump. In the most recent WTHR/Howey Politics poll on April 21 Clinton obtained only 45.4%, while Trump obtained 54.7%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.