Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Virginia is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 13 to September 21 with 659 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. That is, the PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.