Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13 among 701 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. In the most recent Clout Research (R) poll on May 13 Clinton obtained only 48.8%, while Trump obtained 51.2%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 56.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 5.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.