OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.2%. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.