New Jersey: Clinton with small lead in latest Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College poll
By Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 29, among a random sample of 638 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
