Results of a new national poll conducted by FOX were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 with 911 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. For comparison: Only 46.7% was gained by Clinton in the FOX poll on August 30, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. Compared to numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.