Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have often achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29. A total of 800 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 49.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada.