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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


In the latest forecast, Polly predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.3% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.7% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.7% of the vote.

The prediction markets forecast of 53.3% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably low in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.7% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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