Massachusetts: Clinton holds overwhelming advantage in new WBUR/MassINC poll
WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 60.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 10 with 506 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts has Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.