JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
The results show that 35.0% of interviewees indicated that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.