KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 59.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% will cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28 among 732 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 61.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.