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Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 54.3% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they often include large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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