Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 45.7% of the vote.

Iowa is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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